The effect of the curfew on hourly sales

The effect of the curfew on hourly sales

Analysis from S4labour shows that hospitality sales are 18.27% below what they were before the curfew, comparing week 37 & 38 to week 40 & 41 (before and after curfew).

When we look at the 18.27% decrease broken down per hour (graph below), each hour has been impacted which reflects the overall industry slump; a fall in consumer confidence since the curfew. The hours from 6am to 6pm are down on average 16.1%.

A noticeable impact has also been shown in hour 22 (9pm to 10pm) as it is down almost 40%, indicating that the curfew has not only has an impact after 10, but the run up until the time of closure. The place must be cleared by 10, and most people are likely to head home within the hour.

Futhermore, when you look at the food and drinks split between hours (below), it can be seen that food has been hit harder than drink. This is a reflection on a few things. Firstly, most places are unable to offer a second dinner sitting: whereas previously there can be an early, 7:30 sitting, and another can be fitted in later, this is now not possible, therefore food sales are heavily diminished. Secondly, if everyone has to be out by 10pm, it does not offer much opportuity to sell food right up until that time. No one wants to rush their evening meal, but ask someone to squeeze in a last drink at 9:30 and they will not say no.

Richard Hartley commented: “Overall the curfew has impacted sales, perhaps just when the industry was starting to get back on it’s feet.”

Last week’s sales like for like %

Last week’s sales like for like %

Analysis from S4labour shows that hospitality sales from last week were down 12.8% compared to last year, however when we take a closer look, sales in dry-led venues are up 16% on last year, yet wet-led venues are down 40%. Whilst London is still suffering more than the rest of the country, wet-led venues are also taking a big hit.

If we look at a little more detail, it can be seen that in dry-led venues, both drink and food sales are up compared to last year, whereas both types of sales are down in wet-led venues. What we can take from this is that people are increasingly going out for a sit-down meal with drinks rather than heading out to a pub or bar for a drink. It is also worth noting that roughly 10% of sites are still yet to open after lockdown measures were introduced, more of which are likely to be wet-led venues. This continued level of decline since March within wet-led venues is unprecedented and extremely worrying for the industry.

Chief Product Office Richard Hartley commented: “venues that are established as table service have an already adapted way of working, and greater consumer confidence, alongside much larger capacity with the given restrictions.”

 

 

A second look at sales, after the curfew was introduced.

A second look at sales, after the curfew was introduced.

Analysis from S4labour that hospitality sales from last week were down 21.2% compared to the week before the curfew (2 weeks prior), with sales of food down 19.1% and drink sales down 23.2% on two weeks before.

While weekly like-for-likes continue to fall, like-for-like sales are down 13.5% when comparing last week with the same week in 2019, with London suffering a 38.4% decrease in sales when compared to last year, versus a 5.2% decrease in the rest of the country. The figures suggest that London is adjusting to a new decreased level of trading, and that may take a while to recover. It is also worth noting that roughly 10% of sites are still yet to open after lockdown measures were introduced.

Chief Product Office Richard Hartley commented “This level of decline is unprecedented and worrying for the industry, although the weather may have played a part. As the curfew has been introduced, diners and drinkers will start to head out earlier, as a closer look at sales shows that a larger proportion of sales came in earlier. Behaviours may continue to change as we adjust to the new timings.”

A first look at the impact of the 10pm curfew on hospitality sales.

A first look at the impact of the 10pm curfew on hospitality sales.

10pm curfew drops sales by 12.9%. Analysis from S4labour shows that sales over Thursday to Sunday when comparing the week prior to the curfew with last week show a 10.9% decrease in food sales and a 14.7% decrease in drinks sales.

The impact of the latest challenge is another stark reminder of the effect that Coronavirus is having on our industry. EOTHO is becoming a distant memory and the requirement to think of news ways to drive businesses forward is evermore important. Sam Wignell, Chief Customer Officer at S4labour, commented “I have never spoken to so many customers who are having to look at new innovations to drive sales and keep their businesses compliant. It will be interesting to see how consumer behaviours change as we become accustomed to the new regulations.”

Click here https://lnkd.in/eqseJ2V to view more industry analysis from S4labour

This data only includes sites that were open for August.